Autors: Giorgio Trincas, Luca Braidotti, Lorenzo De Francesco
Magazine: Brodogradnja
Vol.68 No.1 March 2017
Keywords: Passenger ships; damage stability; safety control; risk indexes
Abstract
Predicting the consequences of flooding is a key issue that may help the ship master of a large passenger ship to make rational decisions in emergency situations. To this end, the Delphi Emergency Decision Support System (Delphi EDSS) has been designed and is under implementation to continuously assess ship’s state of survivability. Analyses are performed by means of a time-domain simulation program, where transient stages of flooding are investigated and stored off-line for all the potential damage scenarios. The Delphi EDSS evaluates the ship risk level including the most important aspects related to safety state while establishing the time-to-capsize which is of primary concern for the safe evacuation of the damaged ship.
The methodology is based on a scientific approach, setting an overall platform for rational assessment of non-survivability risk. Determination of the global risk level and its components requires solution of a multicriterial problem, where the level of importance of each criterion contributing to determination of a global risk index is combined with fuzzified contributors to risk calculated at lower levels.